Why Freight Rates Are Climbing in 2026

If you've noticed freight costs going up this year, you're not imagining it. Trucking rates have climbed sharply in 2026, and while the market can feel complicated from the outside, the reasons behind it are pretty straightforward once you break them down.

Trucks Are Scarcer Than Loads

For most of the past few years, carriers had more trucks available than shippers had freight to move, which kept rates low. That balance has flipped. Spot rates have climbed well above contract rates for the first time in years, and carriers are turning down a growing share of the loads they're contracted to haul because better-paying freight is easier to find elsewhere. When trucks become the scarce resource instead of freight, rates go up, and that shift has happened faster than most people in the industry expected.

Fewer Drivers Behind the Wheel

Part of the reason trucks are scarce is that qualified drivers are too. The industry is short an estimated 60,000 drivers, and turnover at many large carriers runs as high as 90 to 95 percent a year, with a large share of new hires leaving within their first 90 days. Every driver who leaves the industry, or leaves a company shortly after starting, is one less truck reliably moving freight. That shortage puts steady upward pressure on rates, no matter what else is happening in the broader economy.

What This Means for Shippers and Drivers

For shippers, it means reliable capacity is worth paying for. Companies that can consistently show up and deliver on time have more leverage than they've had in years, and chasing the cheapest quote can leave a shipper without a truck when it matters most. For drivers, it means more options and, in many cases, better pay than the market has offered in a while. Tight capacity is uncomfortable for the industry as a whole, but it rewards the carriers and drivers who show up and do the job right, load after load.

How Long Will It Last?

Nobody can say for certain how long this cycle will hold, since freight markets move in waves and capacity tends to catch up eventually. But the underlying driver shortage isn't going away quickly, and that gives this tight market more staying power than a typical seasonal swing. Shippers and carriers who plan around that reality, instead of waiting for rates to snap back to where they were, will be in a stronger position either way.

At Domingues Transportation, we've built our operation around consistency, not just chasing the highest-paying load of the moment. Whether the market is tight or loose, our goal stays the same: dependable capacity for our customers and steady, fair work for our drivers.